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Badajoz vs Puebla Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Puebla Calzada
Puebla Calzada
3/29/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badajoz67%
×Draw21%
Puebla Calzada12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.94
Puebla Calzada
0.68

Badajoz creates 185% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Badajoz
2.09
Puebla Calzada
0.74

allows per match

Badajoz
0.62
Puebla Calzada
1.79

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Puebla Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Puebla Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
88%
Badajoz or Puebla Calzada
79%
Draw or Puebla Calzada
33%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
41%
Puebla Calzada wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
86%
Badajoz 2+ goals
58%
Badajoz 3+ goals
30%
Puebla Calzada 1+ goals
49%
Puebla Calzada 2+ goals
15%
Puebla Calzada 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
85%
Puebla Calzada (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Puebla Calzada away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 2.09 + Puebla Calzada defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.94

Puebla Calzada attack 0.74 + Badajoz defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Badajoz scores more
67%
level
21%
Puebla Calzada scores more
12%

Badajoz at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badajoz vs Puebla Calzada

Badajoz and Puebla Calzada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.