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Badajoz vs Montehermoso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Montehermoso
Montehermoso
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badajoz72%
×Draw18%
Montehermoso9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
2.08
Montehermoso
0.58

Badajoz creates 259% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Badajoz
2.09
Montehermoso
0.55

allows per match

Badajoz
0.62
Montehermoso
2.08

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Montehermoso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Montehermoso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
91%
Badajoz or Montehermoso
82%
Draw or Montehermoso
28%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
47%
Montehermoso wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
87%
Badajoz 2+ goals
61%
Badajoz 3+ goals
34%
Montehermoso 1+ goals
44%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
12%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
89%
Montehermoso (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Montehermoso away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 2.09 + Montehermoso defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Montehermoso attack 0.55 + Badajoz defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Badajoz scores more
72%
level
18%
Montehermoso scores more
9%

Badajoz at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Badajoz 4–0 Montehermoso

Badajoz beat Montehermoso 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.