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Badajoz vs Jaraíz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz
Badajozadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jaraíz
Jaraíz
5/24/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badajoz56%
×Draw23%
Jaraíz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.80
Jaraíz
1.01

Badajoz creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Badajoz
2.09
Jaraíz
1.40

allows per match

Badajoz
0.62
Jaraíz
1.52

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Jaraíz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Jaraíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
79%
Badajoz or Jaraíz
77%
Draw or Jaraíz
44%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
32%
Jaraíz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
83%
Badajoz 2+ goals
54%
Badajoz 3+ goals
27%
Jaraíz 1+ goals
64%
Jaraíz 2+ goals
27%
Jaraíz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
73%
Jaraíz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Jaraíz away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 2.09 + Jaraíz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jaraíz attack 1.40 + Badajoz defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Badajoz scores more
56%
level
23%
Jaraíz scores more
21%

Badajoz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Badajoz 2 – 0 Jaraíz

Badajoz beat Jaraíz 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 24, 2026.