Badajoz 2–0 Don Benito: Result & Stats

Badajoz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Don Benito

10/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Badajoz68%

×Draw23%

Don Benito9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BadajozExpected goals in this matchDon Benito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.42

Badajoz

1.67

Don Benito

0.42

Badajoz creates 298% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.92

creates per match

0.42

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Badajoz

1.92

Don Benito

0.42

allows per match

Badajoz

0.42

Don Benito

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par

Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Don Benito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw

91%

Badajoz or Don Benito

77%

Draw or Don Benito

32%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+

40%

Don Benito wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals

81%

Badajoz 2+ goals

50%

Badajoz 3+ goals

23%

Don Benito 1+ goals

34%

Don Benito 2+ goals

7%

Don Benito 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)

89%

Don Benito (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Don Benito away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.92 + Don Benito defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Don Benito attack 0.42 + Badajoz defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Badajoz scores more

68%

level

23%

Don Benito scores more

9%

Badajoz at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff