Badajoz 2–4 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Badajoz

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Cordoba

Francis Ferrón 22' (pen)

David Soto 7'

Willy Ledesma 66', 63' (pen)

M. Diouri 56'

Antonio Casas 11'

11/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Badajoz39%

×Draw30%

Cordoba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BadajozExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.94

Badajoz

1.09

Cordoba

0.94

Badajoz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

0.95

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Badajoz

1.18

Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Badajoz

0.92

Cordoba

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw

69%

Badajoz or Cordoba

70%

Draw or Cordoba

61%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+

16%

Cordoba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals

66%

Badajoz 2+ goals

30%

Badajoz 3+ goals

10%

Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)

56%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cordoba attack 0.95 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Badajoz scores more

39%

level

30%

Cordoba scores more

31%

Badajoz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

David Soto

11'

Antonio Casas

22'

J. Calderon

22'

Francis FerrónPenalty

45'

Adilson

46'

M. Diouri← Cedric Teguia

52'

S. Bouzaidi

55'

G. Mancuso

56'

M. Diouri

59'

Javi Ros← Francis Ferrón

63'

Willy LedesmaPenalty

65'

D. Gudelj

66'

Willy Ledesma

69'

Carlos Cordero← Borja García

69'

Zelu← G. Mancuso

76'

De las Cuevas← Willy Ledesma

82'

Carlos Calderón← Adilson

82'

T. Chendri← David Soto

83'

Álex Bernal← Javi Flores

83'

Kike Márquez← Cristian Carracedo

88'

Sergio Benito← Antonio Casas

90'

M. de las Cuevas

90+1'

A. Bernal

90+1'

C. Calderon

Badajoz

Cordoba

▼

⚽2

▼

Ledesma

▼

Carracedo

▼

Teguia

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ferrón

Manager: José Salmerón

59'▲Javi Ros←▼Francis Ferrón

69'▲Carlos Cordero←▼Borja García

69'▲Zelu←▼G. Mancuso

82'▲Carlos Calderón←▼Adilson

82'▲T. Chendri←▼David Soto

Badajoz substitutes

RosCorderoZeluCalderónChendriBurlamaquiValcarcePérezNarváezMüller

Manager: Germán Crespo

46'▲M. Diouri←▼Cedric Teguia

76'▲De las Cuevas←▼Willy Ledesma

83'▲Álex Bernal←▼Javi Flores

83'▲Kike Márquez←▼Cristian Carracedo

88'▲Sergio Benito←▼Antonio Casas

Cordoba substitutes

DiouriCuevasBernalMárquezBenitoDelgadoFuentesAlonsoCruzPicónBarba

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Badajoz 2–4 Cordoba

Cordoba beat Badajoz 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 26, 2022.

Goals: David Soto (7'), Antonio Casas (11'), Francis Ferrón (22' pen), M. Diouri (56'), Willy Ledesma (63' pen, 66').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.

Badajoz vs Cordoba — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Badajoz 2–4 Cordoba