Badajoz 1–1 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Badajoz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Celta de Vigo II

Gorka Santamaría 80'

Miguel Rodríguez 31'

5/15/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Badajoz38%

×Draw28%

Celta de Vigo II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BadajozExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.13

Badajoz

1.23

Celta de Vigo II

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 120 away

1.18

creates per match

1.33

0.92

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Badajoz

1.18

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Badajoz

0.92

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw

66%

Badajoz or Celta de Vigo II

72%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

62%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+

17%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals

71%

Badajoz 2+ goals

35%

Badajoz 3+ goals

13%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

68%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

31%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)

53%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Badajoz scores more

38%

level

28%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

34%

Badajoz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Miguel Rodríguez

33'

I. Gomez

48'

Josema

64'

Fernando Medrano← Javi Gómez

65'

J. Holsgrove

65'

J. Pardo

70'

J. Torres← Josema

75'

Cedric Teguia← Alfon González

75'

L. De León← Miguel Rodríguez

77'

Alex Martin

80'

Gorka Santamaría

85'

Carlos Beitia← Fabrício

90+1'

Joan Truyols← Miguel Núñez

90+1'

T. Awudu← Dani Aquino

Badajoz

Celta

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Isaac Jové

70'▲J. Torres←▼Josema

90+1'▲Joan Truyols←▼Miguel Núñez

90+1'▲T. Awudu←▼Dani Aquino

Badajoz substitutes

TorresTruyolsAwuduLópezBarqueroCallesNsukulaClementeLimonesRosales

Manager: Onésimo

64'▲Fernando Medrano←▼Javi Gómez

75'▲Cedric Teguia←▼Alfon González

75'▲L. De León←▼Miguel Rodríguez

85'▲Carlos Beitia←▼Fabrício

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

MedranoTeguiaLeónBeitiaGarcíaPrado