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Badajoz II vs Villafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz II
Badajoz II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Villafranca
Villafranca
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 18Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Badajoz II31%
×Draw28%
Villafranca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz II
1.07
Villafranca
1.28

Villafranca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Badajoz II
0.87
Villafranca
1.16

allows per match

Badajoz II
1.40
Villafranca
1.27

finishing

Badajoz II+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz II ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Badajoz II or draw
59%
Badajoz II or Villafranca
72%
Draw or Villafranca
69%

Winning margin

Badajoz II wins by 2+
12%
Villafranca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Badajoz II 1+ goals
66%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
29%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
9%
Villafranca 1+ goals
72%
Villafranca 2+ goals
37%
Villafranca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Badajoz II (draw refunded)
43%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz II at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz II attack 0.87 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Badajoz II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Badajoz II scores more
31%
level
28%
Villafranca scores more
41%

Villafranca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Badajoz II 0–3 Villafranca

Villafranca beat Badajoz II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro in Badajoz.