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Badajoz II vs Miajadas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz II
Badajoz II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Miajadas
Miajadas
2/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Badajoz II38%
×Draw29%
Miajadas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz II
1.17
Miajadas
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Badajoz II
0.87
Miajadas
0.77

allows per match

Badajoz II
1.40
Miajadas
1.46

finishing

Badajoz II+0.00on par
Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz II ↓

Miajadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Badajoz II or draw
67%
Badajoz II or Miajadas
71%
Draw or Miajadas
62%

Winning margin

Badajoz II wins by 2+
16%
Miajadas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Badajoz II 1+ goals
69%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
33%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
11%
Miajadas 1+ goals
66%
Miajadas 2+ goals
29%
Miajadas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Badajoz II (draw refunded)
53%
Miajadas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz II at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz II attack 0.87 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Miajadas attack 0.77 + Badajoz II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Badajoz II scores more
38%
level
29%
Miajadas scores more
33%

Badajoz II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Badajoz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Badajoz II 1–0 Miajadas

Badajoz II beat Miajadas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro in Badajoz.