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Badajoz II vs Jerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz II
Badajoz II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Jerez
Jerez
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 27Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Badajoz II35%
×Draw27%
Jerez38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz II
1.21
Jerez
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 107 away

creates per match

Badajoz II
0.87
Jerez
1.15

allows per match

Badajoz II
1.40
Jerez
1.54

finishing

Badajoz II+0.00on par
Jerez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz II ↓

Jerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Badajoz II or draw
62%
Badajoz II or Jerez
73%
Draw or Jerez
65%

Winning margin

Badajoz II wins by 2+
15%
Jerez wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Badajoz II 1+ goals
70%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
34%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
12%
Jerez 1+ goals
72%
Jerez 2+ goals
36%
Jerez 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Badajoz II (draw refunded)
48%
Jerez (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz II at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Jerez away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz II attack 0.87 + Jerez defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jerez attack 1.15 + Badajoz II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Badajoz II scores more
35%
level
27%
Jerez scores more
38%

Jerez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Badajoz II 1–2 Jerez

Jerez beat Badajoz II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro in Badajoz.