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Badajoz II vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Badajoz II
Badajoz II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
11/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Badajoz II33%
×Draw29%
Extremadura UD II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz II
1.05
Extremadura UD II
1.17

Extremadura UD II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 42 away

creates per match

Badajoz II
0.87
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Badajoz II
1.40
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Badajoz II+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz II ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Badajoz II or draw
61%
Badajoz II or Extremadura UD II
71%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
67%

Winning margin

Badajoz II wins by 2+
13%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Badajoz II 1+ goals
65%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
28%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
9%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
33%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Badajoz II (draw refunded)
46%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz II at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz II attack 0.87 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Badajoz II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Badajoz II scores more
33%
level
29%
Extremadura UD II scores more
39%

Extremadura UD II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Badajoz II 1 – 0 Extremadura UD II

Badajoz II beat Extremadura UD II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro in Badajoz.