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Bad Waltersdorf vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Bad Waltersdorf
Bad Waltersdorf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
6/6/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Thermenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bad Waltersdorf50%
×Draw21%
TuS Heiligenkreuz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Waltersdorf
2.06
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.52

Bad Waltersdorf creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bad Waltersdorf
2.03
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Bad Waltersdorf
1.55
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Bad Waltersdorf+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Waltersdorf ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bad Waltersdorf or draw
71%
Bad Waltersdorf or TuS Heiligenkreuz
79%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
50%

Winning margin

Bad Waltersdorf wins by 2+
29%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bad Waltersdorf 1+ goals
87%
Bad Waltersdorf 2+ goals
61%
Bad Waltersdorf 3+ goals
34%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
78%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
45%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bad Waltersdorf (draw refunded)
64%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Waltersdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Waltersdorf attack 2.03 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.06

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Bad Waltersdorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bad Waltersdorf scores more
50%
level
21%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
29%

Bad Waltersdorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bad Waltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Bad Waltersdorf 3–0 TuS Heiligenkreuz

Bad Waltersdorf beat TuS Heiligenkreuz 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at Thermenstadion in Bad Waltersdorf.