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Bad Waltersdorf vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Bad Waltersdorf
Bad Waltersdorf
FT
5 – 1
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
10/4/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 10Thermenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bad Waltersdorf43%
×Draw22%
Lafnitz II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Waltersdorf
1.92
Lafnitz II
1.70

Bad Waltersdorf creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 75 away

creates per match

Bad Waltersdorf
2.03
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Bad Waltersdorf
1.55
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Bad Waltersdorf+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Waltersdorf ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bad Waltersdorf or draw
65%
Bad Waltersdorf or Lafnitz II
78%
Draw or Lafnitz II
57%

Winning margin

Bad Waltersdorf wins by 2+
24%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bad Waltersdorf 1+ goals
85%
Bad Waltersdorf 2+ goals
57%
Bad Waltersdorf 3+ goals
30%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
82%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
51%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bad Waltersdorf (draw refunded)
56%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Waltersdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Waltersdorf attack 2.03 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Bad Waltersdorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bad Waltersdorf scores more
43%
level
22%
Lafnitz II scores more
35%

Bad Waltersdorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bad Waltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Bad Waltersdorf 5–1 Lafnitz II

Bad Waltersdorf beat Lafnitz II 5-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Thermenstadion in Bad Waltersdorf.