Bad Schallerbach 1–0 Wels: Result & Stats

Bad Schallerbach

FT

1 – 0

Wels

3/9/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 17Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bad Schallerbach76%

×Draw14%

Wels10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad SchallerbachExpected goals in this matchWels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

1.00

Bad Schallerbach

2.94

Wels

1.00

Bad Schallerbach creates 194% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 29 away

2.15

creates per match

0.59

1.41

allows per match

3.72

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach

2.15

Wels

0.59

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach

1.41

Wels

3.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

Wels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw

90%

Bad Schallerbach or Wels

86%

Draw or Wels

24%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+

56%

Wels wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals

95%

Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals

79%

Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals

55%

Wels 1+ goals

63%

Wels 2+ goals

26%

Wels 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)

88%

Wels (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 2.15 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.94

Wels attack 0.59 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more

76%

level

14%

Wels scores more

10%

Bad Schallerbach at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff