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Bad Schallerbach vs Union Perg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
FT
3 – 1
Union Perg
Union Perg
11/4/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bad Schallerbach53%
×Draw22%
Union Perg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Schallerbach
2.02
Union Perg
1.33

Bad Schallerbach creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach
2.15
Union Perg
1.25

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach
1.41
Union Perg
1.89

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par
Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

Union Perg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw
75%
Bad Schallerbach or Union Perg
78%
Draw or Union Perg
47%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
31%
Union Perg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
87%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
60%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
33%
Union Perg 1+ goals
74%
Union Perg 2+ goals
38%
Union Perg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
68%
Union Perg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 2.15 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.02

Union Perg attack 1.25 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more
53%
level
22%
Union Perg scores more
25%

Bad Schallerbach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Schallerbach vs Union Perg

Bad Schallerbach beat Union Perg 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach in Bad Schallerbach.