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Bad Schallerbach vs Gurten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gurten
Gurten
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bad Schallerbach32%
×Draw24%
Gurten44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Schallerbach
1.42
Gurten
1.71

Gurten creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach
1.50
Gurten
1.42

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach
2.00
Gurten
1.33

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw
56%
Bad Schallerbach or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
68%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
15%
Gurten wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
76%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
41%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
17%
Gurten 1+ goals
82%
Gurten 2+ goals
51%
Gurten 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
42%
Gurten (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.50 + Gurten defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gurten attack 1.42 + Bad Schallerbach defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more
32%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
44%

Gurten at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bad Schallerbach 3–0 Gurten

Bad Schallerbach beat Gurten 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.