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Bad Sauerbrunn vs Rudersdorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Bad Sauerbrunn
Bad Sauerbrunn
FT
2 – 4
Rudersdorf
Rudersdorf
5/5/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 25Wetterkreuzstadion Bad Sauerbrunn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bad Sauerbrunn58%
×Draw20%
Rudersdorf22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Sauerbrunn
2.33
Rudersdorf
1.38

Bad Sauerbrunn creates 69% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Bad Sauerbrunn
1.80
Rudersdorf
1.07

allows per match

Bad Sauerbrunn
1.69
Rudersdorf
2.86

finishing

Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par
Rudersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Sauerbrunn ↓

Rudersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bad Sauerbrunn or draw
78%
Bad Sauerbrunn or Rudersdorf
80%
Draw or Rudersdorf
42%

Winning margin

Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+
37%
Rudersdorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals
90%
Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals
67%
Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals
41%
Rudersdorf 1+ goals
75%
Rudersdorf 2+ goals
40%
Rudersdorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)
73%
Rudersdorf (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Sauerbrunn at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.69 · 88 matches

Rudersdorf away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.80 + Rudersdorf defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Rudersdorf attack 1.07 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bad Sauerbrunn scores more
58%
level
20%
Rudersdorf scores more
22%

Bad Sauerbrunn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bad Sauerbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Sauerbrunn vs Rudersdorf

Rudersdorf beat Bad Sauerbrunn 4-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Wetterkreuzstadion Bad Sauerbrunn in Bad Sauerbrunn.