Bad Ischl 1–1 Union Perg: Result & Stats

Bad Ischl

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union Perg

3/21/2026

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 18ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bad Ischl44%

×Draw22%

Union Perg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad IschlExpected goals in this matchUnion Perg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.60

Bad Ischl

1.84

Union Perg

1.60

Bad Ischl creates 15% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

1.25

1.95

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Bad Ischl

1.80

Union Perg

1.25

allows per match

Bad Ischl

1.95

Union Perg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Ischl ↓

Union Perg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bad Ischl or draw

66%

Bad Ischl or Union Perg

78%

Draw or Union Perg

56%

Winning margin

Bad Ischl wins by 2+

24%

Union Perg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bad Ischl 1+ goals

84%

Bad Ischl 2+ goals

55%

Bad Ischl 3+ goals

28%

Union Perg 1+ goals

80%

Union Perg 2+ goals

47%

Union Perg 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

56%

Union Perg (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Ischl at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.95 · 59 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Ischl attack 1.80 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.84

Union Perg attack 1.25 + Bad Ischl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bad Ischl scores more

44%

level

22%

Union Perg scores more

34%

Bad Ischl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff