Bad Ischl 1–1 SV Wallern: Result & Stats

Bad Ischl

FT

1 – 1

SV Wallern

4/8/2023

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 21ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bad Ischl35%

×Draw22%

SV Wallern43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad IschlExpected goals in this matchSV Wallern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.93

Bad Ischl

1.71

SV Wallern

1.93

SV Wallern creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

1.80

creates per match

1.91

1.95

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bad Ischl

1.80

SV Wallern

1.91

allows per match

Bad Ischl

1.95

SV Wallern

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Ischl+0.00on par

SV Wallern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Ischl ↓

SV Wallern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bad Ischl or draw

57%

Bad Ischl or SV Wallern

78%

Draw or SV Wallern

65%

Winning margin

Bad Ischl wins by 2+

17%

SV Wallern wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bad Ischl 1+ goals

82%

Bad Ischl 2+ goals

51%

Bad Ischl 3+ goals

24%

SV Wallern 1+ goals

85%

SV Wallern 2+ goals

57%

SV Wallern 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

44%

SV Wallern (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Ischl at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.95 · 59 matches

SV Wallern away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Ischl attack 1.80 + SV Wallern defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

SV Wallern attack 1.91 + Bad Ischl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bad Ischl scores more

35%

level

22%

SV Wallern scores more

43%

SV Wallern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff