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Bad Ischl vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Bad Ischl
Bad Ischl
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
11/2/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bad Ischl44%
×Draw22%
St. Valentin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Ischl
1.92
St. Valentin
1.67

Bad Ischl creates 15% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

creates per match

Bad Ischl
1.80
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Bad Ischl
1.95
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Bad Ischl+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Ischl ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bad Ischl or draw
66%
Bad Ischl or St. Valentin
78%
Draw or St. Valentin
56%

Winning margin

Bad Ischl wins by 2+
24%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bad Ischl 1+ goals
85%
Bad Ischl 2+ goals
57%
Bad Ischl 3+ goals
30%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
81%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
50%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
56%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Ischl at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.95 · 59 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Ischl attack 1.80 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.92

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Bad Ischl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bad Ischl scores more
44%
level
22%
St. Valentin scores more
34%

Bad Ischl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Ischl vs St. Valentin

St. Valentin beat Bad Ischl 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at ÖKO-BOX Stadion in Bad Ischl.