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Bad Gleichenberg vs SK Vorwarts Steyr — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
8/18/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg56%
×Draw21%
SK Vorwarts Steyr23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.10
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.29

Bad Gleichenberg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.97

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

SK Vorwarts Steyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
77%
Bad Gleichenberg or SK Vorwarts Steyr
79%
Draw or SK Vorwarts Steyr
44%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
34%
SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
88%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
62%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
35%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
72%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
37%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
71%
SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 0.97 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
56%
level
21%
SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
23%

Bad Gleichenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Bad Gleichenberg 2–1 SK Vorwarts Steyr

Bad Gleichenberg beat SK Vorwarts Steyr 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena in Bad Gleichenberg.