Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bad Gleichenberg vs Kalsdorf — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
CANC
15:00
Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
5/24/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 17Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg56%
×Draw20%
Kalsdorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.25
Kalsdorf
1.41

Bad Gleichenberg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Kalsdorf
1.20

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Kalsdorf
2.10

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Kalsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Kalsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
76%
Bad Gleichenberg or Kalsdorf
80%
Draw or Kalsdorf
44%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
35%
Kalsdorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
89%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
65%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
39%
Kalsdorf 1+ goals
76%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
41%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
70%
Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Kalsdorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Kalsdorf defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kalsdorf attack 1.20 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
56%
level
20%
Kalsdorf scores more
24%

Bad Gleichenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bad Gleichenberg vs Kalsdorf — Match Preview

Bad Gleichenberg face Kalsdorf on May 24, 2021 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bad Gleichenberg host Kalsdorf at Bad Gleichenberg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.