Bad Gleichenberg 5–0 Gurten: Result & Stats

Bad Gleichenberg

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gurten

3/31/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 20Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg43%

×Draw23%

Gurten35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad GleichenbergExpected goals in this matchGurten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.60

Bad Gleichenberg

1.79

Gurten

1.60

Bad Gleichenberg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 106 away

2.39

creates per match

1.58

1.62

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg

2.39

Gurten

1.58

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg

1.62

Gurten

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Gurten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw

65%

Bad Gleichenberg or Gurten

77%

Draw or Gurten

57%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

23%

Gurten wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

83%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

53%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

26%

Gurten 1+ goals

80%

Gurten 2+ goals

47%

Gurten 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

55%

Gurten (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gurten attack 1.58 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

43%

level

23%

Gurten scores more

35%

Bad Gleichenberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff