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Bad Gleichenberg vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
4/12/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 22Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg49%
×Draw21%
ASK Klagenfurt30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.06
ASK Klagenfurt
1.57

Bad Gleichenberg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
70%
Bad Gleichenberg or ASK Klagenfurt
79%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
51%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
28%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
87%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
61%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
34%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
79%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
46%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
62%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.06

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
49%
level
21%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
30%

Bad Gleichenberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Bad Gleichenberg 3–1 ASK Klagenfurt

Bad Gleichenberg beat ASK Klagenfurt 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena in Bad Gleichenberg.