Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Backnang vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Backnang
Backnang
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villingen II
Villingen II
8/10/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 2Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Backnang66%
×Draw18%
Villingen II16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backnang
2.49
Villingen II
1.15

Backnang creates 117% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Backnang
1.85
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Backnang
1.71
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Backnang or draw
84%
Backnang or Villingen II
82%
Draw or Villingen II
34%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+
44%
Villingen II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals
92%
Backnang 2+ goals
71%
Backnang 3+ goals
45%
Villingen II 1+ goals
68%
Villingen II 2+ goals
32%
Villingen II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)
81%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.49

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Backnang scores more
66%
level
18%
Villingen II scores more
16%

Backnang at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backnang vs Villingen II

Backnang beat Villingen II 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Etzwiesenstadion in Backnang.