Backnang 0–3 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Backnang

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

9/13/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Backnang30%

×Draw22%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BacknangExpected goals in this matchSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.00

Backnang

1.52

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.00

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 32% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

1.85

creates per match

2.29

1.71

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Backnang

1.85

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.29

allows per match

Backnang

1.71

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Backnang or draw

51%

Backnang or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

78%

Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

70%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+

14%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals

78%

Backnang 2+ goals

45%

Backnang 3+ goals

20%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

86%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

59%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)

38%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.29 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Backnang scores more

30%

level

22%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

49%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff