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Backa vs Zemun — Super Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zemun
Zemun
3/3/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 24Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava (Bačka Palanka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Backa38%
×Draw27%
Zemun35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.32
Zemun
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Zemun
1.00

allows per match

Backa
1.51
Zemun
1.68

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Zemun+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Backa or draw
65%
Backa or Zemun
73%
Draw or Zemun
62%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
17%
Zemun wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
73%
Backa 2+ goals
38%
Backa 3+ goals
15%
Zemun 1+ goals
71%
Zemun 2+ goals
36%
Zemun 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
52%
Zemun (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Zemun away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Zemun defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Zemun attack 1.00 + Backa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Backa scores more
38%
level
27%
Zemun scores more
35%

Backa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backa vs Zemun

Backa beat Zemun 2-0 in Super Liga on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava (Bačka Palanka).