Backa 1–1 TSC Backa Topola: Result & Stats

Backa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TSC Backa Topola

8/16/2020

Super Liga · Round 4Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa29%

×Draw26%

TSC Backa Topola46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BackaExpected goals in this matchTSC Backa Topola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.52

Backa

1.14

TSC Backa Topola

1.52

TSC Backa Topola creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 125 away

0.97

creates per match

1.54

1.51

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Backa

0.97

TSC Backa Topola

1.54

allows per match

Backa

1.51

TSC Backa Topola

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Backa+0.00on par

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

TSC Backa Topola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Backa or draw

54%

Backa or TSC Backa Topola

74%

Draw or TSC Backa Topola

71%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+

11%

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals

68%

Backa 2+ goals

32%

Backa 3+ goals

11%

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

78%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

45%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)

38%

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Backa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Backa scores more

29%

level

26%

TSC Backa Topola scores more

46%

TSC Backa Topola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff