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Backa vs RAD — Prva Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RAD
RAD
9/18/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 7Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Backa54%
×Draw26%
RAD19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.48
RAD
0.76

Backa creates 95% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

creates per match

Backa
1.36
RAD
0.76

allows per match

Backa
0.76
RAD
1.59

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Backa or draw
81%
Backa or RAD
74%
Draw or RAD
46%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
28%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
77%
Backa 2+ goals
43%
Backa 3+ goals
19%
RAD 1+ goals
53%
RAD 2+ goals
18%
RAD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
74%
RAD (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

RAD away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 1.36 + RAD defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

RAD attack 0.76 + Backa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Backa scores more
54%
level
26%
RAD scores more
19%

Backa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Backa 0 – 1 RAD

RAD beat Backa 1-0 in Prva Liga on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.