Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Backa vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Backa
Backa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
4/6/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 21Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa32%
×Draw29%
Omladinac NB39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.04
Omladinac NB
1.18

Omladinac NB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 103 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Backa
1.27
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Backa or draw
61%
Backa or Omladinac NB
71%
Draw or Omladinac NB
68%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
12%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
65%
Backa 2+ goals
28%
Backa 3+ goals
9%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
69%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
33%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
45%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Backa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Backa scores more
32%
level
29%
Omladinac NB scores more
39%

Omladinac NB at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Backa 3–0 Omladinac NB

Backa beat Omladinac NB 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.