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Backa vs Kikinda — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Backa
Backa
FT
0 – 1
Kikinda
Kikinda
5/11/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa45%
×Draw26%
Kikinda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.44
Kikinda
1.11

Backa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Kikinda
0.95

allows per match

Backa
1.27
Kikinda
1.90

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Kikinda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Kikinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Backa or draw
71%
Backa or Kikinda
74%
Draw or Kikinda
55%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
22%
Kikinda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
76%
Backa 2+ goals
42%
Backa 3+ goals
18%
Kikinda 1+ goals
67%
Kikinda 2+ goals
30%
Kikinda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
60%
Kikinda (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Kikinda away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.90 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Kikinda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kikinda attack 0.95 + Backa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Backa scores more
45%
level
26%
Kikinda scores more
29%

Backa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Backa 0 – 1 Kikinda

Kikinda beat Backa 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.