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Backa vs Hajduk Divoš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Backa
Backa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hajduk Divoš
Hajduk Divoš
10/18/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 10Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Backa28%
×Draw29%
Hajduk Divoš42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
0.92
Hajduk Divoš
1.20

Hajduk Divoš creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Hajduk Divoš
1.13

allows per match

Backa
1.27
Hajduk Divoš
0.87

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Hajduk Divoš+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Hajduk Divoš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Backa or draw
58%
Backa or Hajduk Divoš
71%
Draw or Hajduk Divoš
72%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
10%
Hajduk Divoš wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
60%
Backa 2+ goals
23%
Backa 3+ goals
7%
Hajduk Divoš 1+ goals
70%
Hajduk Divoš 2+ goals
34%
Hajduk Divoš 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
40%
Hajduk Divoš (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Hajduk Divoš away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Hajduk Divoš defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Hajduk Divoš attack 1.13 + Backa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Backa scores more
28%
level
29%
Hajduk Divoš scores more
42%

Hajduk Divoš at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hajduk Divoš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Backa 1–1 Hajduk Divoš

Backa and Hajduk Divoš drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.