Backa 0–5 FK Crvena Zvezda: Result & Stats

Backa

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

FK Crvena Zvezda

5/14/2021

Super Liga · Round 37Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa15%

×Draw21%

FK Crvena Zvezda64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BackaExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.02

Backa

0.86

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.02

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 135% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 142 away

0.97

creates per match

2.53

1.51

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Backa

0.97

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.53

allows per match

Backa

1.51

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Backa+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Backa or draw

36%

Backa or FK Crvena Zvezda

79%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

85%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+

5%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals

58%

Backa 2+ goals

21%

Backa 3+ goals

6%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

87%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

60%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)

19%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Backa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Backa scores more

15%

level

21%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

64%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff