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Backa vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Backa
Backa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FK Becej
FK Becej
9/23/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa49%
×Draw24%
FK Becej27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.73
FK Becej
1.21

Backa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 88 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Backa
1.27
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Backa or draw
73%
Backa or FK Becej
76%
Draw or FK Becej
51%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
27%
FK Becej wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
82%
Backa 2+ goals
52%
Backa 3+ goals
25%
FK Becej 1+ goals
70%
FK Becej 2+ goals
34%
FK Becej 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
65%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Backa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Backa scores more
49%
level
24%
FK Becej scores more
27%

Backa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backa vs FK Becej

FK Becej beat Backa 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.