Backa 0–2 Dinamo Pančevo: Result & Stats

Backa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Pančevo

5/25/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa39%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Pančevo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BackaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Backa

1.29

Dinamo Pančevo

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 102 away

0.97

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Backa

0.97

Dinamo Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

Backa

1.27

Dinamo Pančevo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Backa+0.00on par

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Backa or draw

66%

Backa or Dinamo Pančevo

73%

Draw or Dinamo Pančevo

61%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals

72%

Backa 2+ goals

37%

Backa 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)

53%

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Backa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Backa scores more

39%

level

27%

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

34%

Backa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff