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Bačka 1901 vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
2 – 1
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
8/29/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190149%
×Draw24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.69
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.21

Bačka 1901 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
73%
Bačka 1901 or Hajduk 1912 Kula
76%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
51%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
26%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
82%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
50%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
70%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
34%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
64%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
49%
level
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
27%

Bačka 1901 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bačka 1901 vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

Bačka 1901 beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.