Bắc Ninh 2–3 Ho Chi Minh: Result & Stats

Bắc Ninh

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ho Chi Minh

N. Son 69', 22'

C. Le 90'

Nguyen Cong Thanh 43'

Dao Tan Loc 25'

3/15/2026

V.League 2 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bắc Ninh47%

×Draw23%

Ho Chi Minh30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bắc NinhExpected goals in this matchHo Chi Minh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.36

Bắc Ninh

1.77

Ho Chi Minh

1.36

Bắc Ninh creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.18

creates per match

1.45

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bắc Ninh

2.18

Ho Chi Minh

1.45

allows per match

Bắc Ninh

1.27

Ho Chi Minh

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bắc Ninh+0.00on par

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bắc Ninh ↓

Ho Chi Minh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bắc Ninh or draw

70%

Bắc Ninh or Ho Chi Minh

77%

Draw or Ho Chi Minh

53%

Winning margin

Bắc Ninh wins by 2+

25%

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bắc Ninh 1+ goals

83%

Bắc Ninh 2+ goals

53%

Bắc Ninh 3+ goals

26%

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

74%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

39%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bắc Ninh (draw refunded)

61%

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bắc Ninh at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bắc Ninh attack 2.18 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.45 + Bắc Ninh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bắc Ninh scores more

47%

level

23%

Ho Chi Minh scores more

30%

Bắc Ninh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bắc Ninh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

25'

43'

69'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff