Babrungas 0–0 Minija: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Babrungas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Minija

4/26/2024

1 Lyga · Round 7Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Babrungas53%

×Draw22%

Minija25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BabrungasExpected goals in this matchMinija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.29

Babrungas

1.95

Minija

1.29

Babrungas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 102 away

2.12

creates per match

1.33

1.26

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Babrungas

2.12

Minija

1.33

allows per match

Babrungas

1.26

Minija

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par

Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Minija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw

75%

Babrungas or Minija

78%

Draw or Minija

47%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+

30%

Minija wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals

86%

Babrungas 2+ goals

58%

Babrungas 3+ goals

31%

Minija 1+ goals

72%

Minija 2+ goals

37%

Minija 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)

68%

Minija (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Minija defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.95

Minija attack 1.33 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Babrungas scores more

53%

level

22%

Minija scores more

25%

Babrungas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff