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Babrungas vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
Preview
11:00
Jonava
Jonava
10/10/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26
Big match
50%
Babrungas
model favours
50%23%27%

Babrungas are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Babrungas50%
×Draw23%
Jonava27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
1.81
Jonava
1.28

Babrungas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 72 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Babrungas
1.24
Jonava
1.49

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
73%
Babrungas or Jonava
77%
Draw or Jonava
50%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
27%
Jonava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
84%
Babrungas 2+ goals
54%
Babrungas 3+ goals
27%
Jonava 1+ goals
72%
Jonava 2+ goals
37%
Jonava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
65%
Jonava (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jonava attack 1.32 + Babrungas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Babrungas scores more
50%
level
23%
Jonava scores more
27%

Babrungas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Jonava score first in only 8% of matches
  • Babrungas have won 3 in a row
  • Jonava raise their game against the top half — 41% wins vs the upper half, only 40% vs the lower
  • 67% of Jonava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Babrungas’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Babrungas
WWWDW
Jonava
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Babrungas face Jonava (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Babrungas hosting Jonava. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.