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Babrungas vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiaiadvanced
E. Baguzas 62'
I. Cisse 49' (pen)
V. Piliukaitis 26'
8/12/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsPlungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Babrungas13%
×Draw16%
Džiugas Telšiai72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
2.74

Džiugas Telšiai creates 154% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Babrungas
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
2.81

allows per match

Babrungas
2.67
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
28%
Babrungas or Džiugas Telšiai
84%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
87%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
4%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
66%
Babrungas 2+ goals
29%
Babrungas 3+ goals
10%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
93%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
75%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
15%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 1.17 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Babrungas defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Babrungas scores more
13%
level
16%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
72%

Džiugas Telšiai at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Urbys
26'
V. Piliukaitis
30'
Pedro Bahia
43'
E. Baguzas
49'
I. CissePenalty
52'
R. Sobowale
52'
A. Latakas
56'
L. Cepkauskas
62'
E. Baguzas
63'
S. Urbys← S. Urbys
63'
D. Bunchukov← D. Bunchukov
63'
D. Martin← R. Sobowale
69'
M. Vasiliauskas← K. Silkaitis
70'
V. Butkus← V. Butkus
70'
E. Agyemang← E. Agyemang
75'
E. Baguzas← E. Baguzas
82'
L. Cepkauskas← L. Cepkauskas
82'
K. Mantinis← K. Mantinis
87'
M. Vasiliauskas← M. Vasiliauskas
89'
V. Vermeulen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Babrungas 1–2 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Babrungas 2-1 in Cup on August 12, 2025.

Goals: V. Piliukaitis (26'), I. Cisse (49' pen), E. Baguzas (62').

The match was played at Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Plungė.