Babrungas 2–1 Dainava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Babrungas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dainava

S. Asano 90+5'

P. Duarte 90+3'

P. O. Ademo 18'

9/17/2022

1 Lyga · Round 23Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Babrungas43%

×Draw24%

Dainava33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BabrungasExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.39

Babrungas

1.63

Dainava

1.39

Babrungas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

2.12

creates per match

1.53

1.24

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Babrungas

2.12

Dainava

1.53

allows per match

Babrungas

1.24

Dainava

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw

67%

Babrungas or Dainava

76%

Draw or Dainava

57%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+

22%

Dainava wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals

80%

Babrungas 2+ goals

48%

Babrungas 3+ goals

22%

Dainava 1+ goals

75%

Dainava 2+ goals

40%

Dainava 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)

57%

Dainava (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dainava attack 1.53 + Babrungas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Babrungas scores more

43%

level

24%

Dainava scores more

33%

Babrungas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

P. O. Ademo

24'

V. Hess

29'

M. Rusys

33'

Maycon

81'

T. Horii

89'

R. Rasimavicius

90+3'

P. Duarte

90+3'

P. Duarte

90+5'

S. Asano

90+6'

S. Asano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff