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Babrungas vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Banga II
Banga II
4/1/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Babrungas60%
×Draw21%
Banga II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
2.12
Banga II
1.10

Babrungas creates 93% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 43 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Babrungas
1.26
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
81%
Babrungas or Banga II
79%
Draw or Banga II
40%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
37%
Banga II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
88%
Babrungas 2+ goals
62%
Babrungas 3+ goals
35%
Banga II 1+ goals
67%
Banga II 2+ goals
30%
Banga II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
76%
Banga II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.12

Banga II attack 0.95 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Babrungas scores more
60%
level
21%
Banga II scores more
19%

Babrungas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Babrungas 3–0 Banga II

Babrungas beat Banga II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Plungė.