Baath Bouhajla 1–1 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Baath Bouhajla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

12/15/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Municipal Bouhajla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baath Bouhajla39%

×Draw30%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baath BouhajlaExpected goals in this matchProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.94

Baath Bouhajla

1.09

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.94

Baath Bouhajla creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.26

0.62

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Baath Bouhajla

1.00

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.26

allows per match

Baath Bouhajla

0.62

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baath Bouhajla ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Baath Bouhajla or draw

69%

Baath Bouhajla or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

70%

Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

61%

Winning margin

Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+

16%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals

66%

Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals

30%

Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals

10%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

61%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

24%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)

56%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baath Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baath Bouhajla attack 1.00 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Baath Bouhajla defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baath Bouhajla scores more

39%

level

30%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

31%

Baath Bouhajla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baath Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff