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Baath Bouhajla vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
11/17/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal Bouhajla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baath Bouhajla48%
×Draw32%
Jerba20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baath Bouhajla
1.11
Jerba
0.61

Baath Bouhajla creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

creates per match

Baath Bouhajla
1.00
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

Baath Bouhajla
0.62
Jerba
1.23

finishing

Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baath Bouhajla ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Baath Bouhajla or draw
80%
Baath Bouhajla or Jerba
68%
Draw or Jerba
52%

Winning margin

Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
20%
Jerba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
67%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
30%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
10%
Jerba 1+ goals
46%
Jerba 2+ goals
13%
Jerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
70%
Jerba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baath Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baath Bouhajla attack 1.00 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jerba attack 0.60 + Baath Bouhajla defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baath Bouhajla scores more
48%
level
32%
Jerba scores more
20%

Baath Bouhajla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baath Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Baath Bouhajla 1–0 Jerba

Baath Bouhajla beat Jerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Bouhajla in Bouhajla.