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Baath Bouhajla vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
5/16/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Omar Nafti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baath Bouhajla52%
×Draw29%
EO Sidi Bouzid20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baath Bouhajla
1.32
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.70

Baath Bouhajla creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 49 away

creates per match

Baath Bouhajla
1.00
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

Baath Bouhajla
0.62
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baath Bouhajla ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baath Bouhajla or draw
80%
Baath Bouhajla or EO Sidi Bouzid
71%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
48%

Winning margin

Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
25%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
73%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
38%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
15%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
50%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
16%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
72%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baath Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baath Bouhajla attack 1.00 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Baath Bouhajla defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baath Bouhajla scores more
52%
level
29%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
20%

Baath Bouhajla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baath Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baath Bouhajla vs EO Sidi Bouzid

Baath Bouhajla beat EO Sidi Bouzid 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Omar Nafti in Chebika.