Bałtyk Koszalin 4–3 Pomorzanin Toruń

Bałtyk Koszalin

FT

4 – 3

Pomorzanin Toruń

6/3/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Koszalin42%

×Draw24%

Pomorzanin Toruń35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bałtyk KoszalinExpected goals in this matchPomorzanin Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.48

Bałtyk Koszalin

1.65

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.48

Bałtyk Koszalin creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.82

creates per match

1.18

1.79

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Bałtyk Koszalin

1.82

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.18

allows per match

Bałtyk Koszalin

1.79

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Koszalin ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bałtyk Koszalin or draw

65%

Bałtyk Koszalin or Pomorzanin Toruń

76%

Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń

58%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+

21%

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals

81%

Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals

49%

Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals

23%

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

77%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

43%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)

55%

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Koszalin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.82 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bałtyk Koszalin scores more

42%

level

24%

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

35%

Bałtyk Koszalin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bałtyk Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff