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Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
FT
1 – 0
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
6/19/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Koszalin38%
×Draw24%
Gwardia Koszalin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.56
Gwardia Koszalin
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.82
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.79
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Koszalin ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bałtyk Koszalin or draw
62%
Bałtyk Koszalin or Gwardia Koszalin
76%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
62%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
18%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
79%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
46%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
21%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
79%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
46%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
50%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Koszalin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.82 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
38%
level
24%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
38%

Bałtyk Koszalin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bałtyk Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gwardia Koszalin

Bałtyk Koszalin beat Gwardia Koszalin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin in Koszalin.