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Bałtyk Koszalin vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
FT
1 – 0
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
11/11/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Koszalin50%
×Draw23%
Górnik Konin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.82
Górnik Konin
1.30

Bałtyk Koszalin creates 40% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.82
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.79
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Koszalin ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bałtyk Koszalin or draw
73%
Bałtyk Koszalin or Górnik Konin
77%
Draw or Górnik Konin
50%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
27%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
84%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
54%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
27%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
73%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
37%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
64%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Koszalin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.82 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
50%
level
23%
Górnik Konin scores more
27%

Bałtyk Koszalin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bałtyk Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Bałtyk Koszalin 1–0 Górnik Konin

Bałtyk Koszalin beat Górnik Konin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin in Koszalin.