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Bałtyk Gdynia vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Bałtyk Gdynia
Bałtyk Gdynia
FT
1 – 2
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Narodowy Stadion Rugby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Gdynia35%
×Draw22%
Nielba Wągrowiec43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bałtyk Gdynia
1.69
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.89

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bałtyk Gdynia
1.62
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Bałtyk Gdynia
1.54
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Gdynia ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bałtyk Gdynia or draw
57%
Bałtyk Gdynia or Nielba Wągrowiec
78%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
65%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+
17%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals
82%
Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals
50%
Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals
24%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
85%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
56%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)
45%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Gdynia at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 1.62 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bałtyk Gdynia scores more
35%
level
22%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
43%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bałtyk Gdynia vs Nielba Wągrowiec

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Bałtyk Gdynia 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Narodowy Stadion Rugby in Gdynia.