Bałtyk Gdynia 6–0 Górnik Konin: Result & Stats

Bałtyk Gdynia

FT

6 – 0

Górnik Konin

9/26/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Narodowy Stadion Rugby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Gdynia50%

×Draw24%

Górnik Konin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bałtyk GdyniaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Konin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.18

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.72

Górnik Konin

1.18

Bałtyk Gdynia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

0.82

1.54

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.62

Górnik Konin

0.82

allows per match

Bałtyk Gdynia

1.54

Górnik Konin

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Gdynia ↓

Górnik Konin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bałtyk Gdynia or draw

74%

Bałtyk Gdynia or Górnik Konin

76%

Draw or Górnik Konin

50%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+

27%

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals

82%

Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals

51%

Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals

25%

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

69%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

33%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)

66%

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Gdynia at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 1.62 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bałtyk Gdynia scores more

50%

level

24%

Górnik Konin scores more

26%

Bałtyk Gdynia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bałtyk Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff