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Bałtyk Gdynia vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Bałtyk Gdynia
Bałtyk Gdynia
FT
6 – 0
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Narodowy Stadion Rugby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Gdynia62%
×Draw19%
Chemik Police19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bałtyk Gdynia
2.31
Chemik Police
1.21

Bałtyk Gdynia creates 91% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bałtyk Gdynia
1.62
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Bałtyk Gdynia
1.54
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Gdynia ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bałtyk Gdynia or draw
81%
Bałtyk Gdynia or Chemik Police
81%
Draw or Chemik Police
38%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+
39%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals
90%
Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals
67%
Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals
40%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
70%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
34%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)
76%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Gdynia at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 1.62 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bałtyk Gdynia scores more
62%
level
19%
Chemik Police scores more
19%

Bałtyk Gdynia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bałtyk Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Bałtyk Gdynia 6–0 Chemik Police

Bałtyk Gdynia beat Chemik Police 6-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Narodowy Stadion Rugby in Gdynia.